Just when you though Italy’s entire political (and economic) system was about to implode … think again! Berlusconi changes his mind at the last minute and decides to vote in favor of the survival of the Letta government, surprising his party’s parliament members who had, against his will and party orders, already decided to do so, and making the remaining ones, who instead publicly supported Berlusconi’s original decision to pull the plug until the very last minute, look like total fools.
Of course by doing so he ultimately saved the day, ensuring the survival of the Letta “grand coalition” government, while trying to save the unity of his own party – even though his hail Mary pass is unlikely to be caught by someone in the end zone. In fact his party had already split before last Wednesday’s confidence vote, when a majority of its leaders, including many ministers and embers of parliament, openly rebelled to the leader’s will – an unprecedented event in the 20-year long history of PDL ( People of Liberty) the party Berlusconi founded from scratch in 1993, with the original name of “Forza Italia” ( a slogan borrowed from a soccer cheer) after a wave of scandals and arrests had created a huge vacuum in the Italian center-right.
During the party’s two decades life span, during which it incorporated major right wing forces, such as AN ( National Alliance), and formed government alliances with others , such as separatist Lega Nord (Northern League), there have been many defections, even from authoritative names (right wing and centrist leaders Gianfranco Fini and Pierferdinando Casini come to mind) . Yet they all (promptly “punished” politically by Berlusconi) came from external allies. This time the revolt came from within: the most vocal opposers of his decision of causing the fall of the Letta government were Fabrizio Cicchitto (a former socialist who has been one Berlusconi’s right arms since day one) and PDL secretary as well as current Minister of the Interior Angelino Alfano (politically born and bread under Berlsuconi’s wing to the point of being considered his “dauphine”).
It was not only the quality but also the entity of the “revolt” to induce Senator Berlusconi’s last minute change of heart: his attempt of lifting the table and scatter the cards once again, came as a last desperate move to buy time before being expelled from parliament and banned from public Office for the next 3 to 5 years as a consequence of a conviction for tax fraud, declared as definitive by the Cassation Court ( Italy’s second degree of appeal), two months ago.
No matter how hard he and his army of star lawyers and political colonels tried, the sentence (which also involved a year of house arrest or of social service work) was on its way to being implemented. It was only a matter of time. So the number one protagonist of Italian politics for the past two decades tried the last blackmailing weapon he had against the government which was about to vote on his expulsion: have all the 200 plus members of parliament belonging to his part resign at once so that the government would fall for lack of a supporting parliamentary majority.
For clarity’s sake it must be said that the government he tried to hijack was exactly the same government he strongly contributed to form when, after the stalemate created by the outcome of last February’s elections, the president of the Republic ( re-elected for lack of a different shared choice) pushed for – and obtained under the threat of resigning from Office once and for all and leaving Italy in a complete irremediable chaos – a grand coalition made up of the strangest bedfellows ever (PD and PDL, respectively Italy’s main center-left and center-right party).
At the time Berlusconi was probably pretty sure he would be acquitted; just like two weeks ago he was probably pretty sure his party – that never really had any internal democracy – would follow his orders without blinking. He was wrong both times. His pretext to pull the plug on the government (a couple of tax hikes he ran against during the electoral campaign) was too weak, even for the majority of his most loyal supporters.
As a result of his miscalculations, Italy is now finally – and hopefully – on the way to a period of relative government stability, during which the strange bedfellows should, without further distractions, proceed to give birth to the desperately needed economic institutional and electoral reforms they were sent there for. The PDL is on its way to a major internal debate/reshuffling and he, Berlusconi, should be on his way out of politics … unless, like in every drama worthy of its name, there is (let us hope not) another twist.